| Day | Time (ET) | Release / Event | Importance | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Jun 1 | 09:45 / 10:00 | S&P Mfg PMI (Final May) · ISM Mfg PMI (May) 54.0 · Construction Spending (Apr) | Medium-High | 5th consecutive expansion month; prices-paid sub-index is sticky-inflation tell. |
| Mon Jun 1 | 23:00 (TW) | Nvidia Computex 2026 Keynote (Jensen Huang) | VERY HIGH | Live: N1X AI-PC chip + Vera Rubin VR200; software-stock rally extends. |
| Mon Jun 1 | AMC | Earnings: HPE, Box, GitLab, SAIC | Medium-High | HPE cons $0.54 / $9.82B; AI-server read-through post DELL. |
| Tue Jun 2 | 10:00 | JOLTS Job Openings (Apr) | HIGH | Cooling labor demand confirms or refutes April NFP+115K narrative. |
| Tue Jun 2 | 14:00 | Total Vehicle Sales (May) | Low-Medium | Consumer health gauge; tariff/credit pass-through. |
| Tue Jun 2 | AMC | Earnings: CRWD (Wed), Hewlett Packard Enterprise wrap reaction, Asana, Donaldson | Medium | Late-day tape positioning into Wed AVGO/CRWD double-stack. |
| Wed Jun 3 | 08:15 | ADP Employment Change (May) | HIGH | NFP precursor. >150K = re-tightens FCI; <90K = early dovish bid. |
| Wed Jun 3 | 09:45 / 10:00 | S&P Services PMI (Final) · ISM Services PMI (May) · Factory Orders (Apr) | HIGH | Services prices-paid is the sticky-PCE leading indicator into June 17 FOMC. |
| Wed Jun 3 | 14:00 | Fed Beige Book (first under Warsh) | Medium-High | Parse for "demand softening" or "wage growth easing"; sets June 17 SEP tone. |
| Wed Jun 3 | AMC | Earnings: AVGO, CRWD, ChargePoint, Verint | VERY HIGH | $73B AI backlog test + cybersec demand binary; highest-vol earnings session. |
| Thu Jun 4 | 08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims · Trade Balance (Apr) · Productivity/Unit Labor Costs (Q1 final) | HIGH | Claims >255K = labor easing; ULC revision feeds into Warsh wage-inflation framework. |
| Thu Jun 4 | 10:00 | Wholesale Inventories (Apr) | Low | Q2 GDP tracker input. |
| Thu Jun 4 | AMC | Earnings: LULU, DOCU, American Eagle, Five Below, RH | Medium | Consumer-discretionary signal + DocuSign AI-doc/CLM read. |
| Fri Jun 5 | 08:30 | May NFP · Unemployment Rate · Avg Hourly Earnings | VERY HIGH | Week’s dominant catalyst. Cons +125-145K / UR 4.2% / AHE +0.3% m/m. |
| Fri Jun 5 | 10:00 | U-Michigan Sentiment (Prelim Jun) · 1Y / 5-10Y inflation expectations | Medium-High | 5-10Y expectations the Warsh-watched series; tail risk >3.5%. |
| Fri Jun 5 | 15:00 | Consumer Credit (Apr) | Low | Revolving credit slow read. |
| Throughout | — | Fed speakers Goolsbee, Logan, Williams; first wave of post-Warsh Fed-speak | Medium | Parse for dissent signals on June 16-17 FOMC. |
| Throughout | — | Iran kinetic headlines (Hormuz, Kuwait drone fire, US tanker posture) | VERY HIGH | Two-way swing factor; Hormuz close = WTI $110+, risk-off. |
| Throughout | — | GTC Taipei + Computex (Mon-Fri) — supplier reveals, Vera Rubin partners | HIGH | Power/cooling supplier names (VRT/ETN), Foxconn ODM lift, ASIC partner tape. |
Carry the AI-hardware/power complex, hedge into Friday NFP, watch Iran tape. The S&P just printed its 9th consecutive weekly gain (May +5.2%); Nasdaq/Dow hit fresh records Friday on the Dell blowout ($51.3B AI backlog, FY27 AI server guide raised to $60B). The Nvidia Computex keynote Monday extends the AI-PC narrative and crucially defuses the SaaS-pocalypse fear that had pressured CRM, WDAY, IBM, NOW — IBM +12% and NOW +10% premarket on Huang’s “software lives” framing is the cleanest sentiment-flip catalyst since Computex 2024. But: every binary then funnels into Wed AMC (AVGO + CRWD double-stack) and Fri 08:30 NFP, while the Iran tape just re-flared (US strikes near Geruk/Qeshm, Kuwait air-def intercepting drones). Posture: long the structural AI/memory/power trend through Wed AMC, then de-gross 20-25% into Thu close ahead of NFP, re-add Fri midday on a benign print. SK Hynix +15% to ATH last week + HBM sold out through 2026 + Anthropic $965B (now > OpenAI) confirms the demand side is not just hyperscaler-funded slogans — it’s converting to revenue. Risk is concentration in a few mega-cap winners; breadth still healthy but watch the IWM/SPX ratio if 30Y crosses 5.15%.
| Instrument | Direction | Conviction | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | Bullish | Medium | 9 weeks up + AI capex re-accel + breadth healthy; Fri NFP is the gate. |
| Nasdaq 100 | Bullish | Med-High | DELL/AVGO/CRWD prints + Computex week + AI-PC narrative + memory supercycle. |
| Russell 2000 | Neutral | Medium | Rate-sensitive vs 30Y 5.09%; outperforms on soft NFP, underperforms on hot. |
| 10Y UST | Higher yield (bearish) | Medium | Sticky services inflation + Warsh hawkish; NFP is the binary. |
| 30Y UST | Higher yield (bearish) | High | Term-premium re-pricing under Warsh; fiscal supply pressure. |
| DXY | Neutral | Low | ~99 area; bid on hot NFP, fades on soft. |
| Gold | Bullish | Medium | Iran flare + soft-NFP optionality; structural CB bid intact. |
| WTI Crude | Bullish | Med-High | $95-96 on US strikes; Russian refining -25%; Hormuz tail. |
| Brent | Bullish | Medium | Same drivers; backwardation steepening on distillate tightness. |
| Natural Gas | Bullish | Medium | TX data-center demand + cooling season; +71% planned gas capacity 2025-2026. |
| Ticker | Direction | Conv. | Rationale & Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | Bullish | High | N1X AI-PC + Vera Rubin ramp + >20% TSMC rev share. Risk: H200 China unresolved. |
| AVGO | Bullish | High | Wed AMC: $73B AI backlog + $10.7B Q2 AI rev guide; path to $100B 2027. |
| MRVL | Bullish | Med-High | FY26 record $8.2B (+42%); AMZN Trainium + MSFT design wins; AVGO confirm. |
| TSM | Bullish | High | Rubin volume Q3 2026; declining hi-NA EUV = margin tailwind. |
| AMD | Bullish | High | META MI400 6GW deal + N1X-adjacent AI-PC narrative. Risk: gross margin. |
| INTC | Bearish (tactical) | Medium | -5.8% premkt on N1X displacement; foundry story still 2H 2026 catalyst. |
| QCOM | Bearish | Med-High | -9.6% premkt; AI-PC silicon TAM contested by NVDA + MSFT. |
| MU | Bullish | High | $800B cap milestone; HBM sold out '26; HBM3E +20%, NAND +60-70% Q1. |
| SNDK | Bullish | High | NAND price hike target 100%; targeting $1,500+ trading range intact. |
| ARM | Bullish | Medium | N1X royalty optionality + AI-PC architecture tailwind. |
| MSFT | Bullish | High | N1X co-development + Anthropic Maia talks + $190B '26 capex; Azure AI run-rate $37B+. |
| GOOGL | Bullish | High | TPU 8t/8i + Gemini 3.5; Cloud backlog $460B+; Pichai "supply constrained through year." |
| AMZN | Bullish | Med-High | $44.2B Q1 capex; AWS +19% YoY; Trainium ramp via MRVL/AVGO. |
| META | Bullish | High | AMD MI400 + VST 2,600MW PPA derisks compute + power simultaneously. |
| ORCL | Bullish | Medium | Stargate infra intact; SaaS-pocalypse fear flips post-Huang Computex push. |
| IBM | Bullish | Med-High | +12% premkt on Huang software-validation; Watsonx agentic layer thesis revives. |
| NOW | Bullish | Med-High | +10% premkt; "control tower" for enterprise AI narrative reinforced. |
| CRM | Neutral-Bullish | Medium | -32% YTD setup + Agentforce + post-Huang sentiment flip = mean-reversion. |
| PLTR | Neutral | Low | Momentum cooling; no specific catalyst this week. |
| CRWD | Neutral (binary) | Medium | Wed AMC; cons $1.06; Falcon Flex momentum; implied move 8%. |
| PANW / ZS / S | Bullish (sympathy) | Low-Med | Bid on CRWD beat; cyber-spend resilient through enterprise wobble. |
| CEG | Bullish | High | PJM accelerated DC connects + 5GW queue + CyrusOne PPA. |
| VST | Bullish | High | 20-yr META 2,600MW PPA + Cogentrix gas acquisition; cleanest PJM beneficiary. |
| TLN | Bullish | Medium | AMZN Susquehanna anchor + PJM beneficiary; smaller liquidity. |
| NRG | Bullish | Medium | TX gas + retail mix into 58 GW pipeline. |
| OKLO | Neutral | Low | 14GW pipeline + NRC design approval; ATM overhang. 5% size cap. |
| SMR | Neutral | Low | TVA 6GW project advances but binary story stock. |
| BWXT | Bullish | Medium | Safer SMR exposure; naval reactor backlog stable. |
| CCJ | Bullish | Medium | U3O8 $85; Q1 beat; 2026 guide unchanged; supply tight. |
| LEU | Neutral | Medium | HALEU thesis intact; volatile small float. |
| DELL | Bullish | Medium | +23% post-print to $389; backlog $51.3B; trim half on +5% from current. |
| HPE | Bullish (event) | Medium | Mon AMC cons $0.54 / $9.82B; AI-server pull from DELL into print. |
| SMCI | Bullish | Medium | Sympathy to DELL/HPE; AI-server demand pull through. |
| ANET | Bullish | Medium | Networking-for-AI bid; META MTIA + custom-silicon optics tailwind. |
| VRT | Bullish | High | Vera Rubin cooling/power TAM ramp; Computex partner reveal optionality. |
| ETN | Bullish | Medium | Data-center power-distribution + grid-buildout cycle. |
| ASML | Neutral-Bearish | Medium | TSMC declines hi-NA through 2029 = order-book trim risk FY27-FY29. |
| AMAT / KLAC | Bullish | Medium | Back-end packaging + equipment refresh on Rubin ramp; Intel foundry beneficiary. |
| LMT / NOC / RTX / GD | Bullish | Med-High | Iran flare + Kuwait air-def fire = defense bid resumes. |
| XOM / CVX | Bullish | Medium | WTI $95-96, Russian refining -25%; integrated cushion. |
| PSX / VLO / MPC | Bullish | Med-High | Distillate cracks tight + Russian outage; diesel-jet hedge into summer. |
| EQT / RRC | Bullish | Medium | TX gas demand + LNG export tailwind; 58GW pipeline anchor. |
| KMI / WMB / TRGP | Bullish | Medium | Midstream picks-and-shovels of gas-power-for-AI build. |
| BA | Bullish | Medium | 200-jet China order confirmed in Trump-Xi truce; production cadence improving. |
| ENPH / FSLR / RUN | Bearish | Medium | Tax-credit cliff July 4 + 50% copper tariff + gas-displacement bid. |
| LULU | Neutral (binary) | Low | Thu AMC; cons $1.68 with y/y decline; NA retail soft. |
| DOCU | Neutral (binary) | Low | Thu AMC; AI agent + CLM expansion = SMB-software read. |
| GLD | Bullish | Medium | Iran flare + soft-NFP hedge; CB structural bid intact. |
| TLT | Bearish | Med-High | Sticky services + Warsh + NFP risk + 30Y 5.09%; portfolio hedge. |
LONG (gross ~64%): NVDA 7%, AVGO 6%, MU 5%, TSM 5%, MSFT 4%, GOOGL 4%, META 4%, AMD 3%, ARM 2%, VST 4%, CEG 4%, BWXT 2%, SNDK 3%, XOM 3%, LMT 2%, CCJ 2%, GLD 3%, VRT 3%, DELL 1% (trimmed), HPE 1% (post-print add if beat), EQT 2%.
SHORT / HEDGE (~10%): TLT short / 30Y UST puts 4%, QCOM short into AI-PC TAM dilution 1.5%, SPY/QQQ put spreads expiring 6/06 expiry 3%, VIX call wing 1.5%.
FLAT / AVOID: INTC, ASML, OKLO, SMR, NNE, LEU, PLTR, CRM (size cap 1.5% if added), LULU, DOCU, ENPH, FSLR, RUN, R2K beta — no edge or asymmetric headline risk into NFP.
Net posture: ~54% net long AI/memory/power + WTI/Gold/Defense, financed by short duration (TLT) and AI-PC TAM dilution (QCOM); de-grossed 20-25% into Fri 08:30, re-added Fri midday on benign NFP.